Inflation came in hot this morning, and earnings season is already separating winners from stumbles. September CPI rose 3.7% year over year (consensus was 3.6%), with core CPI at 2.6% versus 2.5% expected — energy did much of the damage, with gasoline up sharply in the month. Futures slipped and the 10-year Treasury yield jumped toward 5.29% after the print, keeping a possible October 28 Fed hike in play. Against that backdrop, Tuesday’s bank and healthcare results and Wednesday’s fresh prints give us four names to watch.

1. Goldman Sachs (GS) — the blowout quarter

Goldman set the bar for earnings season on Tuesday. Third-quarter EPS came in at $17.01 versus about $13.09 expected — a roughly 30% beat — on revenue of $18.68 billion, up 23% year over year. Net income rose 29% to $5.29 billion. The engine was trading and dealmaking: equities revenue surged 72% and investment banking fees rose 21%.

Wednesday’s follow-through supported the theme: Morgan Stanley beat with EPS of $3.03 on $20.34 billion of revenue, and BlackRock beat with adjusted EPS of $15.93 on $7.75 billion of revenue, $205 billion of quarterly net inflows, and assets under management of $15.5 trillion.

What to watch: Whether the trading boom holds as the rest of earnings season rolls in — and whether the Fed’s next move helps or hurts client activity.

Caution flag: Even a blowout did not lift the sector on Tuesday — bank shares broadly closed lower, and JPMorgan posted a rare miss ($5.57 reported EPS on $50.17 billion of revenue). At this market altitude, great numbers can still disappoint.

2. ASML (ASML) — record sales, and demand it cannot yet meet

ASML delivered the AI-capex read of the week on Wednesday. Third-quarter net sales hit a record €11.662 billion, with net income of €4.96 billion, basic EPS of €12.95 versus about €10.60 expected, and a 57.5% gross margin. Management raised full-year 2026 guidance again, to €44–45 billion of net sales, and guided fourth-quarter sales of €14.2–15.2 billion.

The bigger story is visibility: customers are raising their equipment demand forecasts on the scale and duration of AI investment, some are already discussing orders for 2029 and 2030, and ASML says its planned supply for 2027 and 2028 will not fully meet demand — it is studying capacity beyond a previously planned 30% increase.

What to watch: TSMC’s report later this week for confirmation from the customer side, and any detail on pricing — ASML has signaled higher prices start showing up in results from 2027.

Caution flag: The stock is priced for perfection, and chip shares have been sliding — memory names led a rout this week. A great quarter does not immunize a premium multiple when the sector de-rates.

3. UnitedHealth (UNH) — a beat, a guidance raise, and a fresh insurer angle

UnitedHealth was Tuesday’s healthcare headline: adjusted EPS of $4.69 versus roughly $4.12 expected, on revenue of $112.7 billion. The medical care ratio improved to 88.4% from 89.9% a year earlier, and the company raised its full-year 2026 outlook to adjusted earnings of at least $20.50 per share. Johnson & Johnson also beat ($2.59 adjusted EPS on $25.4 billion of sales) and raised guidance, though its shares fell on a large talc-litigation charge — this sector is rewarding clean stories only.

The setup around it is constructive: the Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV) gained 5.57% in Q3 versus 2.25% for the S&P 500, and Seeking Alpha’s new quant ranking puts Centene (CNC) near the very top of healthcare (a 4.94 quant score). Centene reports on October 27, with consensus expecting only about $0.07–$0.10 of EPS — a low bar worth watching after UnitedHealth’s cost improvement.

What to watch: Whether UnitedHealth’s medical-cost improvement holds for a second straight quarter, and Centene’s October 27 print as the next insurer test.

Caution flag: UnitedHealth’s stock gave back most of its early gain on Tuesday despite the beat and raise. Investors still want proof the recovery can stick, not just one good quarter.

4. Bank of America (BAC) — the $1.2 billion stumble

Wednesday’s other bank story was the opposite of Goldman’s. Bank of America reported GAAP EPS of $0.91, down 13% year over year, after a $1.2 billion regulatory settlement charge — regulators said the bank failed to report more than $5 billion in suspicious transactions — cut earnings by about $0.17 per share. Even excluding the charge, adjusted EPS of $1.08 missed the $1.10 consensus, revenue of $29.96 billion (up 3%) missed expectations, and shares fell more than 3% in premarket trading.

Underneath, the core bank was not broken: net interest income rose 8% to $16.45 billion, credit provisions were roughly flat at about $1.3 billion, and wealth management revenue rose 13% to $7.1 billion. The drag was markets — sales and trading revenue fell 5%, with fixed-income trading down 17%.

What to watch: Management’s commentary on compliance costs and the consent-order work, and whether fixed-income trading recovers in Q4 — the same weakness showed up at JPMorgan.

Caution flag: A regulatory settlement of this size raises the question of what else compliance will cost, and adjusted return on tangible common equity of 12.6% remains well below the bank’s 16–18% target. The discount story needs a clean quarter to work.

The bottom line: This week is a stock-picker’s earnings season in miniature — Goldman and ASML show what happens when a company clears a high bar with room to spare, UnitedHealth shows a recovery story still earning back trust, and Bank of America shows how fast a regulatory headline can swamp a decent underlying quarter. Over all of it sits a hot CPI print: if inflation keeps the Fed leaning toward another hike, every one of these stories gets repriced by rates first and results second.

Disclaimer: This post is for educational and informational purposes only and is not financial advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.