Wednesday opens with a reversal, not a rout: stock futures first fell hard overnight as Democrats swept the midterm elections — taking both the Senate and the House — with Nasdaq-100 futures down as much as 2.4%, then clawed all of it back after President Trump accepted the results, with Dow futures up about 1.44%, S&P 500 futures up about 1.04%, and Nasdaq-100 futures up about 0.93% by early Wednesday morning. That bounce sits on top of a split Tuesday close — the S&P 500 up 0.36% to 7,568.92, the Nasdaq Composite up 0.83% to 25,372.01, and the Dow down 0.38% to 51,786.72 — and on a Tuesday-night earnings slate that answered last week’s AI-spending scare with hard numbers. AMD, Arista, and Super Micro all beat and raised. Tonight, Qualcomm and Arm get their turn, and Friday’s October jobs report still caps the week.
1. AMD (AMD) — Record quarter, and a 2027 outlook that doubled the plan
AMD reported third-quarter results after the close on Tuesday, November 3, and it was the biggest print of the night. Revenue hit a record $13.38 billion, up 45% year over year, beating the roughly $13.09 billion analysts expected. Adjusted earnings came in at $2.09 a share, up 74% year over year, against expectations of about $1.95 a share. GAAP net income was $2.43 billion, or $1.46 a share.
The engine was the data center. Data center revenue surged 97% year over year to $8.55 billion — now 64% of total sales, up from 47% a year ago — as EPYC server processors and Instinct AI accelerators sold into the AI buildout. The guide was just as strong: AMD forecast fourth-quarter revenue of about $17 billion, plus or minus 3%, well above the roughly $16.2 billion to $16.3 billion analysts had penciled in, implying growth of about 66% year over year. On the call, CEO Lisa Su went further, saying that on current visibility 2027 revenue is expected to grow by more than 80% — more than double the growth rate in the long-term model AMD laid out last November. Shares rose about 7% to 8% in after-hours trading, trading near $518 to $520 in Wednesday premarket action from Tuesday’s $483.90 close, after falling 10.88% on October 30 in the chip sell-off.
What to watch: Whether that fourth-quarter $17 billion guide holds as the quarter progresses, and whether AI accelerator sales top server CPU sales for the first time in the fourth quarter, as the company’s trajectory implies. Nvidia reports on November 17 — AMD’s numbers set the bar it has to clear.
Caution flag: Cash did not keep up with profit. Free cash flow was $554 million in the quarter, well below expectations near $1.97 billion and down from $1.53 billion a year ago, for a free-cash-flow margin of just 4%. The fourth-quarter gross margin guide is also about 55%, a step down. In a market that has started auditing cash, that gap is the one soft spot in an otherwise clean beat.
2. Arista Networks (ANET) — Fastest growth since the IPO, and a $18.5 billion first look at 2027
Arista Networks reported third-quarter results after the close on Tuesday, November 3, and posted its fastest growth since its IPO. Revenue rose 58.5% year over year to $3.66 billion, up 20.5% from the second quarter and well above both the $3.33 billion analysts expected and Arista’s own guide of about $3.3 billion. Adjusted earnings were $1.20 a share against expectations of about $1.08, and GAAP earnings were $1.22 a share, with GAAP net income rising to $1.56 billion from $853 million a year ago.
Arista sells the networking gear that connects AI accelerators inside data centers — and that demand is accelerating, not leveling off. Management guided fourth-quarter revenue to $3.9 billion to $4.0 billion, above the $3.6 billion analysts expected, with adjusted earnings of $1.26 to $1.30 a share against a $1.15 estimate. It also raised its full-year 2026 revenue outlook for the fourth time in a row, to $13.3 billion. The bigger surprise came on the call: a first look at 2027, with revenue expected to grow 38% to 40% to about $18.5 billion, well above the roughly $16.4 billion Wall Street had expected. Free cash flow was $1.2 billion in the quarter — Arista prints cash while it grows. Shares jumped about 9% to 12% in after-hours trading, to around $185 to $190 from the regular-session close of $169.90.
What to watch: Whether the 2027 outlook gets built into analyst models at the full $18.5 billion, and whether Arista can hold its adjusted operating margin near 49% while it scales into that demand.
Caution flag: Margins are drifting the wrong way at the edges — adjusted gross margin was 64.0%, down from 65.2% a year ago, and deferred revenue was essentially flat sequentially at $6.84 billion. After a double-digit after-hours jump, the stock has also priced in a lot of that 2027 story in one night.
3. Super Micro Computer (SMCI) — Sales nearly quadruple, guidance raised by billions
Super Micro Computer reported fiscal first-quarter 2027 results after the close on Tuesday, November 3, and the growth rate was the headline of the whole night. Revenue soared 298% year over year to $19.95 billion — nearly quadrupling from $5.02 billion a year ago — beating analyst estimates that ranged from about $16.3 billion to $17.5 billion, and clearing even the top of the preliminary range the company had issued on October 20. Adjusted earnings were $1.81 a share, up 417% year over year, against expectations of about $1.23 a share. Net income reached $1.59 billion, up from $168 million a year ago.
The story is AI servers built around Nvidia’s Blackwell architecture, pulled forward by large data-center deployments. Guidance matched the print: Super Micro forecast second-quarter revenue of $19.5 billion to $21.5 billion, against analyst forecasts near $17.5 billion, with adjusted earnings of $1.66 to $1.90 a share against a $1.14 estimate. For the full fiscal year 2027, it raised its revenue outlook to $72 billion to $82 billion, up from $65 billion to $72 billion previously, with the $77 billion midpoint well above the roughly $70.3 billion consensus. Shares rose about 6% to 12% in after-hours trading, to around $34 to $35 from the regular-session close of $31.39.
What to watch: Whether second-quarter revenue lands inside that $19.5 billion to $21.5 billion range without another round of delayed deployments doing the heavy lifting — about $2.3 billion of the first quarter came from projects delayed in earlier periods.
Caution flag: This is the clearest caution flag of the week. Gross margin fell to 12.7% to 12.8% from 17.5% in the prior quarter as large, lower-margin AI deployments dominated the mix, operating cash flow turned negative at -$434 million, and free cash flow was negative at roughly -$476 million despite nearly $20 billion in sales. Explosive revenue with negative cash flow is exactly the pattern this market has been punishing — Super Micro has to show the cash following the sales.
4. Qualcomm (QCOM) — Tonight’s test: can auto and AI offset the handset fade?
Qualcomm reports fiscal fourth-quarter results after the close today, Wednesday, November 4, and it is tonight’s main event alongside Arm Holdings. The bar is a low one, and that is the point. Consensus calls for earnings of $2.16 a share on revenue of $10.14 billion — down from $3.00 a share and $11.27 billion a year ago — as Apple modem revenue fades and memory costs weigh on Android handset builds. The company’s own guidance was revenue of $9.7 billion to $10.5 billion and adjusted earnings of $2.05 to $2.25 a share, so a print near the top of that range would clear the guide.
Inside the quarter, analysts expect handset chip revenue of about $5.2 billion, down roughly 25%, offset in part by automotive revenue at a record of about $1.7 billion, up around 60%. That mix shift is the whole investment question in one line: is Qualcomm becoming an auto, IoT, and data-center company fast enough to replace a shrinking handset core? Arm reports the same night, with consensus at $0.48 a share on revenue of $1.38 billion, at the midpoint of its own guidance — together, the two reports will show whether AI demand is spreading beyond data-center GPUs into CPUs and devices. Qualcomm shares fell 11.1% on October 30 to $164.79 in Intel’s PC-warning sell-off, so expectations into tonight are already washed out. Options and analyst previews agree the December-quarter guide — consensus near $10.6 billion in revenue — will matter more than the September quarter itself.
What to watch: The December-quarter guidance against that roughly $10.6 billion bar, automotive revenue against the record roughly $1.7 billion expectation, and any update on data-center progress and restructuring charges.
Caution flag: A beat on a lowered bar is not the same as a turnaround. If handset revenue falls faster than expected and the December guide comes in light, the automotive growth — real as it is — is still too small to carry the total.
The bottom line: Tuesday night gave the AI trade what Friday’s sell-off said it needed: receipts. AMD printed a record $13.38 billion and guided to $17 billion, Arista grew 58.5% — its fastest since its IPO — and guided 2027 to about $18.5 billion, and Super Micro nearly quadrupled sales to $19.95 billion and raised its year by billions. The election backdrop resolved the same way — an initial futures drop on the Democratic sweep reversed into a Wednesday-morning rally once the result was accepted, leaving divided government as the new base case rather than a shock. The filter from last week still applies, though: AMD’s free cash flow missed badly and Super Micro’s cash flow went negative even on $20 billion in sales, so growth alone is not the whole grade anymore. Tonight Qualcomm and Arm have to show AI spreading to devices and CPUs, and Friday’s jobs report closes the week — guidance, margins, and cash are still what get paid.
Disclaimer: This post is for educational and informational purposes only and is not financial advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.
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